Does the Community Shield preview Premier League? History provides the answer

The Premier League is (almost) back, with Sunday's Community Shield clash between champions Arsenal and FA Cup winners Manchester City signaling the final countdown to the start of the 2026-27 Premier League season five days later.

It will be the 104th Community Shield -- England's traditional season curtain-raiser between the top-flight champions and FA Cup winners, dating back to the first clash between Manchester United and Queen's Park Rangers in 1908.

This season's game, which will be staged at Cardiff's Principality Stadium since Wembley is booked to host a series of concerts by The Weeknd, will see the two title favorites go head-to-head in an early chance to secure a psychological advantage over their rival. But even though a win would be regarded as a significant victory for Gunners boss Mikel Arteta or City's new manager Enzo Maresca, don't be fooled into reading too much into the outcome of the game.

History has shown Community Shields can offer a misleading glimpse into what lies ahead. Win or lose, it's best to wait for the real action to start in the Premier League before getting too carried away with success or failure in what is still classed as a non-competitive fixture by the English Football Association.

To illustrate, ESPN has picked out six of the most misleading Premier League-era Community Shield games when it comes to how well the final score -- and the game itself -- matched up with how the season progressed.

1998: Arsenal 3, Manchester United 0

Arsene Wenger's team went into the 1998-99 season as Premier League champions and FA Cup winners, with United providing the opposition as league runners-up.

United had spent big in the summer to close the gap, with Sir Alex Ferguson signing defender Jaap Stam and midfielder Jesper Blomqvist and closing on a deal for striker Dwight Yorke, but even with captain Roy Keane making his first appearance since suffering a cruciate ligament injury 11 months earlier, Arsenal ran riot at Wembley with a convincing 3-0 victory.

The Gunners looked set to dominate the season and retain their title, but United bounced back from their humiliation and ended the season as the first English team to achieve a Premier League/Champions League/FA Cup treble.

2022: Liverpool 3, Manchester City 1

This game was billed as a clash between the big summer center forward signings at Anfield and the Etihad -- Darwin Núñez vs. Erling Haaland.

By the end of the game, Liverpool forward Núñez looked to be the player to watch after winning a penalty and then scoring for Jurgen Klopp's side in a 3-1 win at Leicester's King Power Stadium. But despite Haaland's quiet debut, the Norway international would end the season with 52 goals in 53 games for Pep Guardiola's side, including a record-breaking 36 goals in a single Premier League season. Núñez managed just 15 in all competitions for Liverpool.

To further highlight the misleading nature of this result, City ended the season as treble winners while Liverpool missed out on Champions League qualification by finishing fifth in the Premier League.

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2011: Man United 3, Man City 2

City's rise to success under Abu Dhabi ownership had gathered pace after the 2008 takeover, but United remained the team to beat and City were still desperately trying to topple their neighbors.

After racing to a 2-0 lead, Cup winners City looked set to claim a big win against United at Wembley, but Sir Alex Ferguson's United were still renowned for dramatic comebacks. Sure enough, in a one-sided second half, United overturned the two-goal deficit to win 3-2, with Nani scoring their winner four minutes into stoppage time at the end of the game.

But while United lifted the Community Shield, City would have the last word by winning their first Premier League title thanks to Sergio Aguero's stoppage time goal against QPR on the final day of the season.

1992: Leeds United 4, Liverpool 3

Leeds went into the first Premier League season in 1992-93 as the last winners of the old First Division championship, and their emphatic win against Liverpool at Wembley suggested that the Elland Road team would be strong contenders to seal back-to-back titles.

Eric Cantona became the first player to score a Community Shield hat trick since 1908 -- he remains the most recent hat trick scorer in the fixture -- as Leeds won the Shield for a second time. But all the promise in the Wembley sunshine proved to be a mirage for Leeds, with their title defense descending into a nightmare as Howard Wilkinson's side finished 17th, avoiding relegation by two points.

And Cantona, who scored another hat trick against Spurs in the league two weeks later, left Leeds for Manchester United in November 1992, where he helped end a 26-year wait for the league title at Old Trafford.

2013: Man United 2, Wigan Athletic 0

When a smiling David Moyes paraded the Community Shield trophy around Wembley after a 2-0 win against surprise FA Cup winners Wigan, it looked as though United had achieved a seamless transition from Sir Alex Ferguson to their new manager. But United's 2-0 win, secured by two Robin van Persie goals, was as good as it would get for Moyes as Ferguson's so-called "Chosen One."

Without Ferguson at the helm following his retirement after 28 years as manager, United never escaped first gear under Moyes. They would finish outside the top three -- ending up in seventh -- for the first time in the Premier League era.

Moyes, handed a six-year contract as Ferguson's successor, was fired in April 2013 after less than 12 months in charge.

2024: Man City 1, Man United 1 (Man City win 7-6 on penalties)

United had ended the 2023-24 season as FA Cup winners, with Erik ten Hag's side avenging its Cup final defeat against City 12 months earlier to beat Pep Guardiola's team at Wembley.

With the two sides meeting again in the Community Shield, a hard-fought 1-1 draw suggested that United could finally challenge their neighbors for the title again after failing to win the league since Ferguson's departure in 2013.

But both sides would struggle in the 2024-25 season -- City finished outside the top two for the first time since 2017, while United posted their worst season since 1973-74 by finishing in 15th position under Ruben Amorim, who replaced the sacked ten Hag in November.

Reporting from ESPN contributed to this story.